Two days have now passed since President Trump signed the Omnibus Spending bill. Whether Sparta Report, Breitbart, Gate Pundit or many other websites, conservatives are continuing to gnash their teeth and condemn his actions.
Large numbers are making claims that not only will they not vote for Trump again, but will not even vote in either the mid-terms or the 2020 Presidential election.
Some have gone so far as to hope and wish for impeachment and conviction of the President, as well as the complete destruction of the GOP.
It is now time to put away the vindictiveness of thought and to properly assess what options existed for the President. We begin with the goals of the Far Right.
The Far Right’s “Wish List” for the Omnibus Bill
Conservatives in general and the Far Right especially, had specific goals that they want to be achieved in the Omnibus Bill. The most important of those goals were:
- Total elimination of funding for Planned Parenthood.
- Elimination of funding for Obamacare.
- Elimination of anything to do with Gun Control including studies.
- Steps to begin outlawing of abortion.
- Elimination of DACA through some funding mechanism and no Amnesty.
- Total funding for the Border Wall.
- Defunding of Sanctuary Cities.
Any funding bill that did not address the issues of most concern to the Far Right would be considered a failure. Though one or two might be omitted and “forgiven” for its absence, to not address the Border Wall, DACA or Planned Parenthood was the worst sin and could not be forgiven.
For the Far Right, without addressing their “Wish List” would be grounds for vetoing the Omnibus and for railing against President Trump, Congress and the GOP.
To understand the position that President Trump was in, it is important to understand what each specific issue of importance would mean for passage of the Omnibus if it was included in the bill.
The Senate is the key problem for conservatives and passage of their Wish List. Republicans hold a 51 seat majority with 49 opposed to them. With Vice President Pence as the “tie-breaker” in any “tie vote”, the Republicans can only lose one senator to vote against passage of the Omnibus. Lose two senators, and they cannot pass any bill.
The Republicans are “blessed” with several senators who cannot be counted upon to vote as conservatives would hope. McCain, Lindsay, Flake, Corker, Collins and Murkowski will always have some views that diverge from the Wish List. Any two who diverge on a single issue would derail the Omnibus Bill. Have more than one contested issue in the Bill, and it could not pass.
Planned Parenthood defunding is an issue that would result in votes against the bill by Collins and Murkowski. The loss of their votes would kill any bill.
Defunding of Obamacare would also result in Murkowski and Collins voting against the bill. McCain would join them, and likely one other as well, probably Flake. Again the bill dies in the Senate.
Funding of the Border Wall poses another problem for bill passage. Funding the Wall and Collins, Murkowski, McCain, Lindsay and Flake would vote against it and result on a loss to the Republicans.
An end to DACA funding or Sanctuary Cities and more funding for deportation of all illegals would find all six identified senators opposing the bill.
The reality of the situation is that if any single one issue on the Wish List was put into the bill, then there would be no passage of the Omnibus Bill. The result would be a government shutdown.
For these reasons, the Wish List was not included in the bill.
Signing the Bill versus Veto of the Bill
President Trump had two options when the Omnibus Bill passed both the House and the Senate. He could either sign the Bill or veto it.
A large element of the Far Right wanted President Trump to veto the Bill since it did not contain their Wish List of issues. They believed that with a veto, the President would be sending a message to “the base” and also to those in Congress that he was on their side and would go to any extreme to support them.
The problem with a veto is that the President would enrage Democrats, the Media, Congress and many other groups against him. It would be presented that the President was solely responsible for shutting down the government (yes, I do know that the whole government does not shut down) since a bi-partisan agreement was in place. This would be the main argument going forward in the mid-terms to challenge the President.
Once the government shut down, Dems and some Republicans in the Senate would do everything in their power to keep it shut down for an extended period of time to further their political goals, which for the Dems was taking back control of the House and to avoid losing more seats in the Senate.
In the end, an Omnibus Bill similar to the current one would be passed, without the Wish List issues included.
President Trump had no choice but to sign the Omnibus bill.
What is Next?
The Omnibus Bill took out of play many critical issues that would otherwise have become “pawns” for compromise in future Omnibus negotiations. This allows the Congress to move forward on Wish List issues without these distractions.
The President can now use his “power” to force Congress to take up DACA, Amnesty, the Wall and other issues. And this is the “trap” for Congress, especially the Republican members.
Republicans (and Democrats) will have to go on the record whether supporting or against DACA and the Wall. They cannot hide behind Omnibus Bills and other delaying measures. By coming out in the open, they make themselves vulnerable for upcoming elections if they vote against the base.
Meanwhile, we return to the reaction of those who wanted President Trump to veto the Omnibus Bill.
As mentioned previously, there has been an outpouring of anger against the President for not vetoing the Omnibus. The anger has manifested itself among those who:
- Refuse to vote for Trump in 2020.
- Will sit out the 2020 election or will vote for a third party candidate.
- Refusal to work on the future campaign.
- Refusal to donate to the campaign.
- Will destroy MAGA gear or else send to White House in protest.
- Refusal to vote for Congressional Republicans in either 2018 or 2020.
- Incredibly, hope or wish for the impeachment and conviction of Trump.
- Wish for destruction of the Republican Party.
For these people, the “betrayal” by President Trump is an excuse for another goal. Far too many do not care about the “practical problems” of getting an Omnibus Bill passed to keep the government operating.
Instead, those wanting a veto wish for a “government shutdown” where “revenge” can be obtained against those who do not accept and vote for their Wish List.
Exit Question: Do those who want the government shutdown at any cost understand that by not voting for Trump and the Republicans or just sitting out elections will:
- Lead to the Democrats taking control of the House and likely the Senate.
- Will prevent other MAGA legislation from being enacted.
- Will lead to the impeachment of Trump and maybe even the conviction of Trump in the Senate.
- Will potentially result in a Democratic president in 2020.
Well, one thing I can certainly say:
Bizchuck was right. Sitting out the election, refusing to vote for Republicans or else voting for a third party candidate will be a vote for the Democrat party.