My theory (in lieu of having any real experts to believe in) is that when hospitalizations begin to rise, that’s a really bad thing since we are seeing more sick people again. This doesn’t have anything to do with testing or any other kinds of indirect data. Someone being checked into the hospital is a pretty clear indication they’re sick.
There’s one possible mitigating factor which is that if the people going into the hospital are younger, we might expect their stay to be shorter and the outcomes to be better. Regardless, it’s not good.
TMC = Texas Medical Center or maybe The Movie Channel. It’s hard to know. Anyway, they’re in Houston.
Here’s one more chart which is the one that has everyone concerned at the moment. If everything continues to grow at the same rate, they’ll exceed their surge capacity in twelve days. If one were cynical, one would say that die has pretty much been cast since we know the incubation time is about ten days so someone who is infected today will look for a hospital in about twelve days.
All of this data can be found at https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/ .