Why Did the IMHE Model for Coronavirus Used by the CDC Just Cut Their Numbers Down Drastically?

Suspicious Activity or Bad Data?

CDC IHME Model Changed

The latest numbers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) paint an interesting, if dark picture for the next few weeks in the United States’ battle against the latest China instigated viral pandemic. The model has predictions to help the federal, state, and local governments decide where they will need to focus their efforts on expanding surge capacity to deal with the influx of new, serious China flu cases set to come in over the next few weeks.

The IHME model currently predicts:

  • Hospital Beds needed: 140,823
  • ICU Beds needed: 29,210
  • Invasive Ventilators needed: 24,828

However, this is quite different from the numbers their model stated the United States needed on April 2nd. More than a few blogs and commenters on the right noticed the discrepancy and have been sounding the alarms over Dr Birx and Fauci using fake news to close down the United States for their nefarious plans of world domination or whatever the hot take is today.

Earlier, the IHME model predicted on April 2nd:

  • Hospital Beds needed: 262,092
  • ICU Beds needed: 39,727
  • Invasive Ventilators needed: 31,782

Instead of a few minutes of hyperventilating about a one world government taking over America through Dr Fauci and Birx locking us down and inserting locater chips into our orifices, taking a peek at the IHME model update note page will show something a little less nefarious although just as worrisome:

At the time of our first release on March 26, the only location where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan City. These data from Wuhan formed the basis of our estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. Since then, an additional seven locations in Italy and Spain with large coronavirus epidemics appear to have reached the peak number of daily deaths (see below): two in Spain (Castile-La Mancha and Madrid), and then five in Italy (Emilia-Romagna, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, and Tuscany).

With today’s update, we now estimate the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak of daily deaths using all eight locations where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The time from implementation of social distancing to the peak of the epidemic in the Italy and Spain location is shorter than what was observed in Wuhan. As a result, in several states in the US, today’s updates show an earlier predicted date of peak daily deaths, even though at the national level the change is not very pronounced.

Again, here we have models using fake Chinese numbers and extrapolating that to the United States and elsewhere. Let me be clear, China’s numbers are FAKE. There have been many articles highlighting the fake news that is the China data sets from the China Flu pandemic. Some leading people to speculate that millions have died due to the third world conditions common in most of China. One article shows how bad the discrepancy is:

Nevertheless, several accounts have emerged to show that even though the official count of coronavirus cases did not rise, the number of people becoming infected was surging. A radiologist in a Wuhan public hospital was quoted by Caixin, a Chinese news website, as saying he identified 50 new cases on January 15. The official Xinhua news agency, meanwhile, ran a story on a doctor who fell ill with the virus on January 11.

Reinforcing such accounts of a cover-up, Li Wenliang, a doctor at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, informed fellow medics in an online chat group on December 30 of seven new pneumonia cases. But on the same day that Dr Li mentioned his cases, the WMHC was forbidding hospitals from making public announcements and telling hospitals to simply report cases internally.

After the initial suppression efforts on information failed and the Chinese government placed Wuhan, China on lockdown, stories broke describing the lengths the government was taking to control the virus. This included outright sealing people in their homes and placing many others in prison to keep them from infecting the general population. It is no wonder that the western media is finally coming to grips that China is not telling the truth and is not a victim:

Estimates put Wuhan’s death toll near 40,000 people from the China flu, sixteen times higher than the official count from China.

The IHME model should have been suspect from the outset because of this. It is not because of a leftist conspiracy, but because of stupidity in our cultural leaders in kowtowing to China’s propaganda.

Now that we are using data from countries, that are not making up numbers to control unrest within their borders, we are getting a better picture. It is allowing for states like Washington, which have succeeded in getting the virus largely under control, to send extra ventilators to states like New York that are on the upswing for critical care needs. And it has allowed states like New York to now say:

“We don’t need any more ventilators.”

Secondly, as Mark pointed out earlier, these models are also not predicting the efficacy of President Trump’s often touted, and now backed by multiple studies and a large medical group, hydroxychloroquinine and Zithromax combination therapy in combating the China Flu. Italy has been using a combination of HCQ and Z-Pak formulation since the 30th of March and is seeing a rapid decline in deaths and new cases.

The models may have to start to account for a sharp drop off in deaths now that this medley is being used throughout the United States. Many Democrats who seem to be secretly hoping for a 1918 Spanish Flu redux will undoubtedly be disappointed in a few weeks if this scenario pans out the way it seems to be trending:


Written by NWC

World class hater of the United States Political Establishment and their globalism fetishes, especially unfettered immigration.


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