Italy announced 3599 new cases and 636 new deaths for April 6. They have been in this rolling hell with about 4500 new cases per day. We’ll know more tomorrow whether this holds. “New cases” is likely a measure of the success of how effective social distancing has become after Italy’s citizens began to comply.
Deaths have dropped significantly from the peak although they are up a bit today. I found it really interesting that they had deaths dropping while new cases were about that same which could mean that their treatments were getting better. We do know that Italy began treating patients with Hydroxychloroquine on March 30 so that could be a reason. Other reasons are possible as well such as the age mix of patients could be changing.
The reason Italy is so important to watch is that it could be a better model for what happens in New York based on actually data rather than modeling projections.