The Democrats have wasted most of their time in the House of Representatives investigating Trump and talking about impeaching him, so it’s not a real surprise to me that they may be losing the voters:
After the so-called “blue wave” of Democratic victories in the 2018 midterm election, the grassroots of both parties looked to the 2019 off-year as a testing ground for the 2020 presidential cycles. With only four states in play and sporadic special elections, 2019’s small skirmishes were hailed as indicators for how the Republican Party would fare in 2020.
The first major skirmish took place in Minnesota’s 11th state Senate District, which had long been in Democratic hands. In 2016, the incumbent Democrat rolled over the Republican nominee 54.5% to 45%. Then, in 2019, Republican Jason Rarick flipped the script, winning 52% to 46%.
Later that month, the bright blue state of Connecticut held five special elections, in which Republicans successfully flipped two recently vacated Democratic seats. Meanwhile, in early March, Republicans secured Kentucky’s 31st Senate District by four points, a seat which appeared so safe for Democrats that the Republicans did not even bother putting up a challenger in 2016. In North Carolina, meanwhile, a bloodied and scandal-ridden GOP managed to narrowly eke out a win for Dan Bishop in the 9th Congressional District.
The ensuing elections have followed a well-reported pattern: Republicans have lost ground in the suburbs, but they are gaining substantial ground in the small towns that dot the American landscape. While the broad strokes are well reported, the nuances have been completely neglected, to paint a picture of a sweeping blue wave that will wipe away Republican prospects in 2020.
In reality, the blue wave has been counteracted by a reliable red spread in districts across the country. Rural voter turnout is going up, old union voters who saw their medium-sized cities become ghost towns are switching parties, and the Blue Dog Democrats in the South and the Midwest are becoming reliable Republican voters.