Argentina’s Hillary Clinton is back!
Alberto Fernández, a Peronist veteran, got 48% support in a vote that has far-reaching consequences for international creditors and the future of a South American trade agreement with the European Union.
The weeks before Mr. Fernández’s December inauguration could be crucial as investors look for signs of policy direction in his cabinet picks and what role his leftist running mate, former President Cristina Kirchner, will play in his administration.
Mr. Fernández, a moderate, was once a sharp critic of Mrs. Kirchner’s interventionist policies, including nationalizations of businesses and currency and price controls. He resigned as her chief of staff in 2008. The pair made up after the Peronists suffered a strong defeat in the 2017 congressional midterm elections.
In May, Mrs. Kirchner announced that Mr. Fernández, then a little-known political operative and law professor, would run on the top of the ticket instead of her. Critics contend he will be a puppet of the former president, while he says he will call the shots.
Let me make a few predictions. First, I’m willing to bet that the unnamed “critics” are absolutely right, and Fernandez is going to be a puppet for Kirchner. I believe was put forth as the leading candidate to lull voters into allowing her back into office. Kirchner is another Hillary Clinton with an insatiable appetite for power and will never accept playing second fiddle to anyone. Like Hillary, Kirchner’s political enemies also have a track record of dying mysteriously.
Second, you can bank on some kind of economic catastrophe happening in Argentina in the next two years. Kirchner is not exactly known for her good governance, apparently being a fan of Venezuela-like economic policies.
Maybe there will be something to Bolsonaro’s warning of waves of Argentinian refugees after all!