OK, this is it.
The last chicken has been gutted and the entrails have been read.
First, The B Team: Rubbish, Radius, Kingsjester, ArcadeHero & Your Uncle Bruno
(Extra gruel has been promised to the winner)
Radius: House 230-205 for the GOP; Senate 57-43 for the GOP
Rubbish: House 218-217 for the Donks ; Senate 51-49 for the Donks
Kingsjester: House 238-197 for the GOP ; Senate 53-47 for the GOP
ArcadeHero: The Republicans will keep the House and expand in the Senate, although I see it being tight in the House. Mitt Romney will laugh his way onto MSNPC & CNN for the next six years, but at least we’ll see his sad face come Election Night 2020.
Bruno Strozek: House 223-212 for the Donks; Senate 54-46 for the GOP
Now, the Big Dogs (peace be upon them)
Doomberg: House 231-204 for the GOP; Senate 57-43 Senate for the GOP
Fossten: House remains GOP, very little change. Senate no worse than 55-45 GOP. Chuck Schumer sprouts a lizard tail and loses his glasses, Sessions resigns and Rosenstein is fired.
NWC: House: Remains in GOP control, ten seats go to the Democrats if it is D+7, or if it is D+4-5 like I think, the House seat changeover will be negligible. Senate GOP majority expands, taking North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Florida, and possibly Montana with a very outside chance in Minnesota and New Jersey for a flip.
All that remains now is the weeping, the wailing, the rending of garments, the gnashing of teeth and the lammamentations ov za vimins…
There isn’t going to be a blue wave. I’m confident at this point the Republicans will at least hold the House. The possibility even exists, in my opinion, for the Republicans to gain a couple of seats.
The signs in retrospect have been obvious. The Democrats, the media, and the pollsters have all been promising a 2006-style “Blue Wave” practically since the day Trump was elected. The theory went that Trump’s horrible, racist, Nazi-like policies weren’t really popular and that he had just been installed by Russian hackers and Facebook ads somehow.
The problem is that in spite of the screaming, hysteria, and social upheaval, the President’s policies have generally been successful and popular, boosted by a strong economy. The Democrats also remain unable to connect with American voters, and are talking about transgender bathrooms, social justice, and global warming, issues no one cares about outside of wealthy liberals and political activists.
We’ve been seeing the Democrats starting to try to tamp down on their base’s hysterical ardor with the election looming, because of the gigantic backlash that will result if the Democrats fail to retake the House.
It started in early October when Nate Cohn began ringing the alarm bells, then Zogby said a Democrat win of the House is “elusive.” Democrats expecting a blue wave have begun to panic, as noted here. Democrat Rep. Seth Moulton answered with an unqualified “yes” when asked if his party was overconfident. Key Senate races are trending red, and the Democrats are being forced to make ad buys in blue states. The Hispanic vote is not expected to materialize.
Larry Schweikart’s Twitter account is full of information about early voting, and we seem to be ahead in the early vote in many key states. Here’s one example:
3) So Rs will come out of early voting with lead of about 22-24,000.
(Monday many Panhandle polls will be open, and there are still a lot of Panhandle absentees trickling in.
4) That means FL Rs will have a NET improvement over 2016 of 116,000 in a state Trump won by 113,000.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) November 3, 2018
Where is this blue wave going to come from? I don’t see how it’s supposed to materialize.
In a sane political atmosphere, the Democrats might have been able to spin the capture of a handful of House seats as a rebuke to the Republicans. But the Democrat base expects a complete Republican wipeout at this point, so anything short of capture of the House is going to feel like a defeat to them and feel like a huge victory for Trump.
Presuming the Democrats fail to take the House, you can expect an amped up 2016-style reaction from the Democrats. There will be lots of videos of them screaming and crying, followed by lots of violent protest marches and riots in the following month. The media will be flooded with articles about how “democracy has failed” and hate-filled rants against the “deplorables.”
We’re in for a wild year in 2019.
NWC – Extended Prediction for the 2018 Midterm Election
I do not expect a 2006 repeat, which is what the media and the pundits have been predicting for months (predictions which they are now walking back some because the polling is on very shaky ground).
I have said repeatedly that the media overestimates in almost every single election the support for Democrats in their polling. When the votes are counted on election day and the election day exit polls are completed, the preelection polling offered up by the likes of FAKE NEWS twins CNN and Fox News is shown to be not only completely wrong, but not even in the same universe of wrong that traditional pollsters consistently achieve.
2016 was a banner year for the pollsters, along with Brexit and dozens of other elections across the world. I expect that trend to continue as more and more people, especially conservatives, refuse to answer polling questions.
So what do we have as actual concrete evidence for my optimism?
Early voting, President Trump’s crowd size, historical examples of preelection polling vs. election day exit polls.
Across the country, Republicans are doing way, way better than they ever have compared to previous years in getting out the vote. They are beating their 2014 numbers by quite a bit and are destroying Democrats in getting a turnout close to their 2016 game under then candidate Donald Trump.
Florida has shown Republicans leading Democrats for the first time in early voting, now that was just a temporary lead, but it is disastrous for a Democrat party that needs to have an early vote pad of over 100,000 votes to hope to beat the turnout of Republicans on election day. Right now they have a deficit of 120,000 votes compared to their 2016 turnout vs Republicans.
Another alarm bell for Democrats one day before the election:
Unreturned ballots: 700K in 2014 (43-33% Dem) / 1.1M in 2018 (42-32% Dem)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 5, 2018
That is definitely not good for Democrats in Florida, where almost 50% of Democrats haven’t returned their early/absentee ballots the day before the election.
As for other states, the numbers are largely similar. California is showing very large turnouts in the republican areas of the House districts under attack by the Democrat money men.
States like Nevada are showing that the Republicans are almost matching the total turnout for Democrats in the big Democrat counties, which is slaughtering their poor turnout numbers in 2016.
President Trump’s Coattails
Trump has been a masterful figure in turning out the base. In rally after rally, President Trump has shown no drop in the enthusiasm for his Presidency, despite what the fake news media polling has tried to consistently show.
The media clings to their polling-astrology as evidence to inoculate them against what their eyes are showing them every time President Trump hosts a campaign rally.
President Trump has continued to get “Hope and Change” level turnouts long after that phrase was tossed into the dumpster by ex President Obama’s
If the Republicans hold and expand their presence in one or both chambers tomorrow, President Trump should be credited with dragging the Republicans —yet again— across the finish line.
Polling Historical Evidence
In an earlier post, I highlighted the massive problem the media has with their credibility regarding the polling of elections in which they have a vested interest in one of the candidates or group of candidates succeeding.
In nearly every midterm going back nearly a quarter of a century, the Republicans have been consistently underpolled in preelection polling. I would expect to see no change in this pattern come tomorrow evening. The Republicans were underpolled by 3 points in 1998, 3 points in 2002, nearly 4 points in 2006, 3 points in 2014.
In fact the only election where the media overestimated the Republican generic ballot advantage was in 2010, but even still, they still did not manage to predict the turnout of Republicans. In that election, the media average showed an expected turnout of Republicans at 50%, the actual election results showed a Republican turnout of 52%.
What is consistent here is a pattern of collusion with the media organizations to buoy a Democrat party that cannot function on an even playing field with Republicans. The Democrat party without the media and the rich financiers is a failed party.
President Trump, by targeting the media in his attacks, is destroying one of the bedrock institutions of the modern Democrat party. Attacking their polling is just another front in our battle with a completely biased and hack organizations run by NPC-social justice warriors.
Oh and the CNN poll that just came out today? They showed a D+13 advantage on their generic ballot polling. In 2006, CNN showed a D+20 advantage on their generic ballot polling, in an election where the Democrats had a D+8 actual final election result advantage.
Remember, CNN is fake news garbage that should only be watched to report any assassination threats to the secret service and to laugh at the NPC talking heads.
This message hasn’t changed for me in a long time, here is an excerpt from a post I wrote in January of this year:
As elections draws closer, the Republican party also tends to increase in support as the polling propaganda by media companies is reduced. 2016 was a great example of this as ABC went from showing a double digit victory for Hillary Clinton to a margin of error race.
Some will continue to broadcast polling insanity, Fox News showcased this in the most recent election in Alabama were they were showing a blowout for Doug Jones the day before the election where he won by 1 point.
A Democrat generic ballot lead can also be deceptive due to racial gerrymandering. The Democrat party insists that the apportionment system be preserved and protected, which has boxed them into districts that ensure their perpetual control. However, this also severely limits their expansion into the surrounding areas. As such, they need a very large margin in the pre-election polling in order to see gains of seats in the final results.
In 2006, in order to gain 31 seats and take over the lower chamber, the Democrats needed a generic ballot advantage of 10 points. In order to gain another 31 seats under the auspices of the presidential election of 2008, they had to have a 14 point generic ballot advantage.
Contrast this with the 2 point generic ballot advantage in 2010 that the Republican party enjoyed, that resulted in them picking up 63 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2014, the Republicans won an additional 16 seats with a 5 point generic ballot advantage after the redistricting of 2010 was put into action in most states.