The NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll released in the last week contained some great headline numbers for President Trump going into the November elections. What the media has not been telling you is how the polling looked below the headline numbers and just how badly the Democrat party look to the average voter.
President Trump is now experiencing a higher approval rating than his predecessors, which when below a certain point (usually 45%) has historically pointed to losing a large number of seats in the House and Senate midterm elections.
President Trump’s approval rating is now higher than President Obama’s was at this point in his term, which means that the President can and will have a coattail effect on the down-ballot races for the House and Senate this year.
The NBC/WSJ poll showcased why this was the case in the subsequent pages of the released polling. The Democrat party is now polling below the Republican party in the favorability metrics.
Clocking in at 35% favorable, the Democrat party is at a low point compared to the last first term midterm election under President Obama. During the close of that election, the Democrats had near 40% favorable ratings from likely voters.
Contrast that to the Republican party, which had 36% favorable metrics under the poll and which beat the favorable rating from the pre-election polling before 2010.
The Republicans have been doing so well under Trump that they now are posting their highest favorable rating in over six years. The last time the Republican party was viewed this favorably was in 2012 under the disastrous presidential run of Mitt Romney, who many of you know is about to walk into a Senate seat in blood red Utah.
More good news for Republicans in the NBC/WSJ polling: They lead on some of the biggest issues versus the Democrats:
- Protecting America’s interests in trade: 17 point lead
- The economy and jobs: 15 point lead
- Handling the nomination process for the Supreme Court: 3 point lead
- Who’s better to change Washington DC: 1 point lead
The Democrats lead by double digits on “who you want to manage healthcare,” women’s issues, and they also posted a slight lead on immigration issues.
But one trendline that is very interesting and shows that President Trump knows exactly what he is doing is the metrics on “who is looking out for the middle class.”
President Trump has managed to narrow the gap from nearly 20 points in the Democrats favor to just 8 points in this poll. The Democrats have dominated that question by almost at least or more than 20 points since… 1989.
In the last year, the President and his policies have seen that advantage given to the Democrats drop precipitously in the President and his party’s favor. In August, the Democrats had a 12 point lead on that issue, and a 14 point lead back in December of 2017.
The trendlines are not showing a big enough Democrat blue wave to take back the House of Representatives from the Republican party. If the trends keep continuing, the blue wave may amount to little more than a dozen seats changing hands in favor of the Democrats. And that will be devastating to the Democrats, who operate on an arrogance and projection of power more than they live in reality.
In many ways, this election may emulate the 1970 election in more ways than one. The 1970 midterms resulted in the President’s party gaining two seats in the Senate while also simultaneously losing 12 seats in the House of Representatives.
If the Republicans end up gaining 5 or more Senate seats, it will be highly, highly unlikely that they will be losing the House of Representatives.
Of course the United States could experience a freak turnout in some areas where it could technically end up with a Democrat House of Representatives, it is mathematically unlikely in a scenario where the Republicans are picking up Senate seats left and right.
If a blue wave does not materialize, do not expect the Democrats to go away quietly. Expect the Democrats to move onto 1970 style bombings and unrest.