Missouri: Proposition A, McCaskill vs. Hawley Fight Will be Cemented After Tonight
Polls close: 8 PM Eastern
According to 538, “Missouri will still play host to one of Tuesday’s most consequential elections: a ballot measure, Proposition A, that would allow non-union members who benefit from a collective-bargaining agreement to not pay union dues.”
Missouri’s Republican-dominated legislature originally passed Senate Bill 19, commonly referred to as a “right-to-work” law, in 2017, but outraged labor unions turned to an already-energized liberal electorate and collected three times the number of signatures needed to subject the law to a voter referendum. After being dealt heavy blows in other Midwestern states and, recently, the U.S. Supreme Court, organized labor has gone all-in to defeat the right-to-work law in Missouri, raising $16.1 million and dwarfing the $4.3 million raised by supporters of Proposition A. (Since the vote is technically on whether to adopt Senate Bill 19, a “yes” vote is a vote for right-to-work rules.) So far, it looks like they’re succeeding: According to the most recent poll, the referendum is poised to fail 56 percent to 38 percent. The vote is being watched nationally and will be viewed as either a needed symbolic win or a devastating symbolic loss for the labor movement.
Ohio Special Election: Can Balderson Pull out a win in a Heavily Republican District?
Polls Close: 8 PM Eastern
We should see a Troy Balderson win in this heavily Republican congressional district, Ohio’s 12th, but the media has been playing up the polling showing a close race. The Republican candidate, like in the most recent Democrat upset in Pennsylvania, has been a bad candidate, lazy, and attempting to coast to victory. This has the national party and President Trump coming to the district to fight against the Democrats to prevent another embarrassing loss caused by a backbencher establishment Republican expecting a seat to be handed to them.
An average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O’Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi.
Kansas: Congressional District Fights Plus a Free for all With the Governor’s Race
Polls close: 8 PM Eastern in most of the state
Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins announced her retirement from Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District, now seven Republicans are vying to replace her. The Democrats are serving up former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis for their nominee. The district is heavily Republican (R+20). Republican Steve Watkins is the heavy spender in this race. Paul Davis has raised nearly 2 million for the fight this year, so money issues on the Republican side could be an issue in November.
In the 3rd district, Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder is defending. The seat is a R+4 seat, which could be a problem in a Democrat wave election. Democrats are in a battle royale to find which wing of their party will be represented this year:
Bernie Sanders has endorsed former labor lawyer Brent Welder. Emily’s List is spending $400,000 to promote Native American activist Sharice Davids, who could probably beat you up. As a teacher at an elite private high school, Tom Niermann has the moderate cred to win over country-club Republicans in this well-educated district around Kansas City. That would normally suggest he’d give Democrats the best chance to win in November, but a poll sponsored by a progressive group also showed Welder doing well.
The Democrats have some former heavyweights backing fundraising behemoth State Senator Laura Kelly, like Kathleen Sebelius. She is fighting against conservative-ish Democrat and former state Secretary of Agriculture Joshua Svaty, who wants a medicaid expansion but opposes abortion and gun restrictions. Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer is also running in the Democrat primary.
After Sam Brownback resigned, Jeff Colyer was elevated to the governor’s mansion and is running for a full term. He is currently being challenged by Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who also chaired President Trump’s Commision on Election Integrity.
A mid-July poll showed Colyer leading Kelly by 10 points, but Kobach trailing the Democrat by 1. The state is a R+23 on the partisan indexes, so it is extremely likely that whomever wins the Republican primary, will be the next governor.
Michigan: Governor Race Drama, Likely no Surprises in Store for U.S. Senate Nominees
Polls close: 8 PM Eastern in most of the state, 9 p.m. Eastern in four counties on the Upper Peninsula
The latest polling has Trump endorsed state Attorney General Bill Schuette running ahead of Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley for the governor’s race by 16 points. Brian Calley (a Governor Rick Snyder loyalist) has suffered from his nevertrumper positions taken during the 2016 general election campaign where he renounced his support for candidate Donald Trump after the Access Hollywood tape was released.
Shri Thanedar could be the dark horse for the Democrats tonight as he has been dumping millions of dollars into his campaign against the Democrat establishment backed candidate former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. However, Bernie Sanders and Alexandra “Crazy Eyes” Ocasio-Cortez announced endorsements of and have campaigned for former Detroit Health Director Abdul El-Sayed for the Democrat nomination.
The Senate race will likely end up with Trump endorsed military veteran John James as the Republican nominee vs. Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow.
Washington State: A Preview of the Blue Wave in November
First Results: After 11 PM Eastern
Washington state uses a top-two primary system and all mail in balloting. One benefit from the state doing this method of voting is that it is usually very close to the turnout we will see in the general election. In Washington, the primary is usually a couple of points more Republican than it will be in the general, but the outcomes will be very similar. In the last several elections, the combined total vote share of all the Democratic candidates vs. all the Republican candidates has closely matched the eventual two-party margin in November.
If there is going to be a big blue wave, the results tonight will show the signs. California’s election (which also is very close to the final result) showed scant evidence that a Democrat wave election was right around the corner, if Washington shows similar results, expect the Democrat propaganda arm (the media plus Twitter, Facebook, and Google) to go into overdrive with Fake News and shrill coverage of the latest manufactured outrage in the Trump administration. Also, do not discount a sudden leak or new development in the never-ending Jeff Sessions endorsed Mueller investigation.
The 8th congressional district is the race to watch as a toss-up district. State Senator Dino Rossi (who also had the 2004 governor’s race stolen from him by the Democrats endless “recount until we win” fiasco) is going to be the likely Republican nominee vs. the winner of the three way Democrat battle. One of the Democrats, Jason Ritterreiser, accused President Trump of committing treason in an ad. His opponents are Kim Schrier and Shannon Hader, the former has the backing of Emily’s List.
The final results of the Washington state races won’t be announced immediately as the ballots will still be coming for several days.