It is primary election results time again, this week’s contests are in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon and Pennsylvania. I will be summarizing several races, courtesy fivethirtyeight and other sources.
But first, as a refresher for those who do not know what D+7 or R+1 or EVEN stand for, as I will be using them quite a bit in this analysis:
Partisan lean is a representation of how much more Democratic or Republican an area is than the nation as a whole. For example, a district with an R+7 partisan lean would be expected to vote Republican by 7 percentage points in a neutral national environment — or deadlock in the event Democrats win the national popular vote by 7 points.
Races to watch: 1st, 5th, 7th, 10th and 14th congressional districts; governor
Honorable mentions: 4th, 9th, and 13th
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern
1st District – The 1st is a R+1 district, the two Democrats are in a nasty primary where each is trying to out “progressive” the other. The winner will face GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. (*Scott Wallace is beating former Republican Rachel Reddick by nearly ten points now.)
5th District – Mary Gay Scanlon leads a crowded Democrat field (according to polls of the race) in this D+26 congressional district.
As the results have come in she is falling behind her polling, Rich Lazer is currently leading by 2% Scanlon is BACK into the lead, leading by 6 points with 72% in.
7th District – The frontrunner in the Democrat primary is John Morganelli (
*currently leading), a Northampton County district attorney who opposes abortion, attacks “illegal aliens” and sought a job in the Trump administration. Emily’s List is backing Allentown City Solicitor Susan Wild, while Bernie Sanders has stumped for pastor Greg Edwards, who has also raised the most cash. Republicans will choose between Marty Nothstein, former Olympic gold medal winner, and former Lehigh County Commissioner Dean Browning. The district is EVEN in partisan balance.. Susan Wild is leading the pack now with 400 votes!
Susan Wild is leading the pack now with 1000 votes!
10th District – Republican Rep. Scott Perry will face whomever the Democrats pick for this R+11 district in the 2018 midterm election. Currently of the three running, Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson(
*currently leading) has the most establishment and monetary support. Former Army Lt. Col. George Scott and public health scientist Eric Ding are also seeking the Democrat nomination. Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson is behind George Scott by 300 votes! Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson is behind George Scott by 300 votes! 91% reporting.
George Scott WINS!
14th District – State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler faces retread failed candidate state Rep. Rick Saccone for the GOP nomination. Saccone, is noted for losing the March special election to Democrat Conor Lamb. Reschenthaler is under attack for writing a foreword for a book that contained “racist and anti-gay” language. The district is a safe Republican district at R+29.
RICK SACCONE LOSES BY 10 POINTS AT 89% COUNTED, Guy Reschenthaler will likely win the seat in November.
Other Notable Districts – Other primaries to watch include the Democratic primary in the 4th and the Republican primaries in the 9th and 13th.
Pennsylvania Senate – Rep. Lou Barletta is the
likely winner in the Republican primary over state Rep. Jim Christiana in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. For some reason, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey is likely to retain the seat given current polling and his own electoral history.
Pennsylvania Governor – State Sen. Scott Wagner (*likely winner, leading by several points now) and health care consultant Paul Mango have poured millions into their own campaigns. They’ve used that advantage to catapult their way to the front of the field.
In recent weeks, they have decided to turn that monetary advantage against one another. Mango aired an ad so savage that the state GOP (which formally endorsed Wagner) called on it to be taken down. When Mango refused, Wagner issued a withering response ad starring his daughter. (Sample quote: “Paul Mango, you’re not half the man my father is.”)
A third candidate, attorney Laura Ellsworth, is trying to “pull off a Mike Braun” and squeak through after the front runners have nuked each other into oblivion. The recent polling shows her closing and it might be too late for her to finish in first given that the polls still showed her with a double digit deficit to make up.
Pennsylvania’s New Districts:
Races to watch: 2nd Congressional District
Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern
Nebraska Senate – Lincoln City Councilwoman Jane Raybould
should be IS the Democratic nominee for Senate who will face off against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
Nebraska Governor – State Sen. Bob Krist has the establishment and money backing and
will likely be IS the Democrat Nominee to face GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts. The state as a whole is R+27.
2nd District– In the 2016 D+3 election, Republican newcomer Don Bacon won it by 1 point, beating incumbent Democrat Rep. Brad Ashford. The Democrats want a rematch this year with Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC pouring money into Ashford’s campaign, giving him a substantial $600,000 raised this session. But nonprofit executive Kara Eastman seeks to represent the alt-left Democrat party base and has a sizeable grassroots backing for her unabashed support of the #Resistance and socialist single-payer health care. She has raised nearly as much as Ashford, taking $400,000. The district is R+6.
Ashford at 98% in is leading Eastman by 68 votes. This is going to be a nailbiter.
BIG NEWS: EASTMAN DEFEATS ASHFORD, the seat moves to likely Republican now.
Races to watch: governor
Polls close: 10 p.m. Eastern in the southern half of the state, 11 p.m. Eastern in the north
Idaho Governor – There is a three way race in Idaho’s Republican primary to replace current Republican Gov. Butch Otter. Lt. Gov. Brad Little has the endorsement of Gov. Otter, who says that his experience makes him the right person for the job.
Businessman Tommy Ahlquist has poured $2 million into his campaign, but has come under major fire for his #NeverTrump behavior. In the 2016 general election, Ahlquist wrote in Marco Rubio’s name instead of voting for Donald Trump on his ballot. In 2014, he also donated to the Democrat who is likely to be his opponent this fall.
Raul Labrador, co-founder of the House Freedom caucus is also running and claims that he was considered for a cabinet position because of how close he is with President Trump. Idahoans are expected to vote on a ballot measure to expand Medicaid this fall, and Labrador has said that he would consider overturning the initiative if it were to pass.
Businessman A.J. Balukoff —perennial Democrat candidate— is again running for the Democrat nomination in the Democrat gubernatorial primary. He has spent six times as much money as state Rep. Paulette Jordan, and has Idaho’s elected Democrats endorsing him. Paulette Jordan has the backing of national left wing groups, including abortion mill/baby part merchant Planned Parenthood and Democracy for America.
Paulette Jordan is in the lead with 25% in
Brad Little is also in the lead with 25% in
Races to watch: governor
Ballots due: 10 p.m. Eastern in part of Malheur County, 11 p.m. Eastern everywhere else
Republicans are attempting to take the Oregon governor’s mansion this year, a seat that the Democrats have held since the 1980s. Liberal Republican state Rep. Knute Buehler is fighting off a challenge from consultant Sam Carpenter, who’s slogan is “Make Oregon Great Again,” and former Navy pilot Greg Wooldridge. Buehler has been slammed by his two primary opponents for his support for nearly unfettered abortion, his gun grabbing and gun control policies, and his support for sheltering illegal aliens from deportation in sanctuary cities. In return, Buehler is carpet bombing Carpenter statewide with ads saying he hasn’t paid his taxes and doubling his monetary spending on broadcast advertisement to attempt to depress conservative turnout in the primary.
Whomever wins this primary tonight will face off against Incumbent Gov. Kate Brown in the fall.
As always, please try to keep discussion election related until after the primary winners are called.