Adding to the great news for Trump supporters this week is an amazing poll for President Trump’s approval ratings from Reuters. Their last poll of President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings —completed a little over a week ago— almost had him reaching 60% disapproval.
Now? President Trump has blasted through his bad approval ratings and is showing a swing of 18 points in his favor. He has rocketed from 37% / 58% approval to 48% / 49% approval.
To visualize this stratospheric rise in approval, take a look at the graph below (courtesy of Reuters/Ipsos):
President Trump now leads on every important issue facing the voters, including the Economy, Taxes, Jobs, Defeating ISIS/Terrorism, and Immigration. He nearly reaches 50% approval on Foreign Policy, International Trade, and Dealing With Congress.
Together, the top issues for Americans in the poll are the Economy/Jobs, Terrorism, War, and Immigration where Trump leads on all issues by a wide margin.
President Trump has an astounding near 60% approval on the Economy, Jobs, and Defeating ISIS.
The news is so good for the president and his supporters that Reuters/Ipsos felt obligated to include a caveat in their initial explanation of the polling, saying that they need more data to recognize if this movement is a trend or a blip in their system.
This week’s Reuters/Ipsos Core Political release presents something of an outlier of our trend. Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one. So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.
Of course Reuters was —as Sparta Report noted earlier today— attempting to explain why a sub 4% unemployment rate for the United States was a bad thing for Americans.
Good News for the Midterms?
The Democrats experienced their last wave election in 2006, where they gained 30 seats with an extremely dissatisfied and fractured Republican party failing to show up to vote in the midterm elections. The country was more under the control of the Democrats at that time at the state level, the districts they won in 2006 were infinitely more favorable to them than they are now after the 2010 redistricting.
The Democrats are also far more liberal in 2018 than the party was in 2006. The entire party has taken a drastic turn to the left since that election. Once upon a time, Nancy Pelosi represented the far left, now she is decidedly in the middle of the Democrat caucus.
Primaries have increased the slide of the party into socialism and outright communism in many areas.
In 2006, the polls were showing Democrats with a lead on the generic congressional ballot of around 12 points. The final winning margin was an eight point margin.
The ReutersIpsos poll released today shows a five point margin for the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, which squares with other polls showing a collapsing “blue wave” model as the midterms draw near. A five point margin is very similar to the margin that won Donald Trump the White House in the 2016 presidential election, where the margin was a three point gap between the parties.
The recent broadsides popular cultural icon Kanye West in his apparent conversion to outspoken conservatism has shocked the left to the point that they are calling for his death.
Black support for Trump has risen twelve points since West started making his remarks in public. So it stands to reason that some of this explosive rise in President Trump’s polling may be related to West’s comments, allowing more people to believe it is socially acceptable for them to support Donald Trump’s policies.
If the Democrats attempt to win back the House of Representatives with a five point spread between them and the Republicans, not only will they fail to win back the House, they will likely be calling for their leadership’s heads after the “wave” turns out to be a delusion.
And it would not be the first time a “wave” election has petered out by the time the election rolls around. John F. Kennedy only lost four seats in the House of Representatives in his first and only midterm election. Ronald Reagan lost five seats in his second term and George H.W. Bush lost only eight seats.
However, the most unthinkable —yet juiciest— scenario that President Trump could pull off this year would be for him to actually win seats in the House of Representatives. Bill Clinton was able to win five seats in the 1998 midterm elections.
If President Trump is able to take even more seats from the Democrats this year, I do not think anyone would want to be Nancy Pelosi or Charles Schumer on election night.