Tuesday’s turnout among Republican primary voters was up big from previous contests, where the Democrats have shown a large turnout among the special election voters. In most states, the Republican turnout has rivaled their 2010 primary turnout, which took place mere months before the Republicans went on to win a huge 63 seat victory in the House of Representatives and six seats in the United States Senate. This represented the largest midterm victory since the 1930s for any political party in the United States.
The Democrats on the flipside performed very poorly in the primary elections on Tuesday, having not matched their previous levels of enthusiasm and turnout over Republicans. This is despite what the traditional —democrat linked— media has been professing to see in their polling and turnout models for months.
For the Democrats to win back the House of Representatives and the Senate, they must outperform Republicans on their home turf, and not just in unique special election scenarios or in their areas where they already dominate. Getting a 90% win in San Francisco 2018 from 60% win in San Francisco 2016 is not going to get Democrats house seats in Texas and Ohio.
Ohio Republicans had a very, very good night
Turnout in Ohio is showing that its newly Republican bent may be solidifying as the once purple state continues its march to the right. Ohio Republicans saw a 150,000 vote edge over the Democrats in the governor’s race, which was the most contested candidate race for primary voters. The state’s Republican senatorial primary saw a smaller edge, but still a sizeable one, over their Democrat counterparts.
Unfortunately, in the past the Democrats in Ohio did not usually turn out for their primary elections. The party faithful do tend to show up for their general elections in the state, as evidenced by Sherrod Brown’s multiple wins over his Republican opponents despite sizeable differences in primary turnout.
However, Senator Brown better hope that Jim Renacci does not pull a Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton 2016 rematch later this year.
West Virginia also had a very good night for Republicans
The Don Blankenship ex felon candidacy has been ground into dust. The only way Blankenship can run in the general election is if he decides to move to a write in candidacy. Given his poor showing in the primary over his two rivals, West Virginia Republicans should not expect a write-in. Blankenship had the stench of a Democrat (their choice for the GOP nominee) operation all over him.
Secondly, perennial bad candidate John Raese is not running this year. A high level Republican is going for the seat with the current Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is running to replace Democrat Senator Joe Manchin.
In recent elections, the total Republican vote has been increasing in every off year election. The Republicans have also enjoyed a boost in their final vote percentages from their primary turnout by about 4-6%.
In 2006, the Republicans running for the seat Manchin currently holds received about 30% of the total primary vote versus the Democrats’ share. In 2010, this number advanced to 36%. In Tuesday’s primary election, the Republicans managed to take 46%.
If Republicans’ 4-6% gain from the primary vote percentage holds this year buoyed with a good candidate like Morrisey, Manchin may have a real fight on his hands to retain his seat.
Indiana’s Republican Party Showing Turnout Similar to 2010
If there is any indication that this general election is going to be a status quo election or an even bigger reset in FAVOR of the Republicans, this state is it. Democrat Joe Donnelly received a little over half of what the Republicans received in their primary.
In 2010, the Republican scored around 550,000 total votes that nominated Dan Coats, who would eventually move on to win the general election later that year. The Republicans got a little more than 505,000 votes this year.
Joe Donnelly likely loses in November.
What Happened in North Carolina?
The only real bright spots for the Democrats’ unremarkable numbers on Tuesday were the vote totals coming from the Democrat primary elections for the US House of Representatives in North Carolina. Several House districts showed a marked increase in Democrat voters from the last several elections.
Some districts, like US House District 9, showed a fairly sizeable lead for Democrats thanks to Dan McCready’s inexplicably large turnout in the heavily Republican district. The Republican voters decided to oust the long time incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger and have replaced him with Mark Harris. The outcome of this race, which has gone from uncontested by the Democrats several years ago to a now open seat race this year will be interesting to watch.
Other districts, like US House District 2, benefited from the name recognition of one of its candidates, Linda Coleman. She has run a couple of high profile statewide campaigns for North Carolina’s lieutenant governor position. She goes on to face George Holding who a local state strategist says is well prepared for any challenger, having amassed over 2 million dollars for his reelection campaign.
CNN Drops the Poll Bomb on the Democrats’ Hopes for Regaining the House and Senate
Devastating news for Democrats from their favorite network CNN, their most recent poll shows yet another drop in their support from the voters. The CNN generic ballot poll has shown a strong swing away from the often fake news peddling network’s earlier predictions of the Democrats’ taking over the US House of Representatives based on their polling.
About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% — including nearly half of independent voters (48%) — say it doesn’t matter which party controls Congress.
Confirming the drastically improved position of the president that Reuters poll showed last week, CNN shows President Trump continues to gain in approval on all important issues as he makes the case for voters to send the Republicans additional reinforcements in the 2018 elections. Will CNN disavow their own poll like Reuters ended up doing?
The money quote comes in the next paragraph, where CNN drops another horrible data point for the Democrats, they have fallen 13 points over the last three months:
The Democrats’ advantage in the generic ballot dipped from 16 points in February to six points in March to just three points now. The party’s advantage has waned among enthusiastic voters as Republican enthusiasm has grown (in March, 36% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting; that’s up to 44% in the new poll), but the Democrats still have a double-digit lead among those most excited to vote this fall (53% of those who are very enthusiastic about voting say they’d back the Democrat in their district vs. 41% who say they favor the GOP candidate). Those enthusiastic voters also say by a 10-point margin that the nation would be better off with Democrats in control of Congress than Republicans.
As Republican enthusiasm has grown, the Democrat edge has fallen precipitously. As the primary results are showing in multiple states, the Democrat hopes of a big, blue wave later this year might go the way of Hillary 2016.