Sparta Report

Why the Democrats are Going to Have a Tough Time Winning the 2018 Elections

The Republicans are doomed in November, doomed, according to the media and their polls. There is to be a big blue wave that will reinstate Nancy Pelosi to her rightful place as the Speaker of the House. And yet, there are some glaring, nagging issues that hamper the media and Democrats goals.

The mythical big blue wave that the media was breathlessly talking about in the 2016 presidential election, that was to usher in the first woman presidency, never materialized despite their best efforts. Despite their loss, they have soldiered on and even brought out the wave scenario again.

The Washington Post highlighted that they believe the 2018 elections are going to be a reverse of the Republican win in the 2010 midterm elections. They created several infographics to showcase exactly why they believe the similarities exist.

But what they revealed is the single biggest reason for the Democrats continued losing streak in the Congressional elections, they are becoming too liberal for America. People on the right have joked about the fact that liberals in the Democrat party have to hide their true beliefs in order to win elections for years.

The only way the Democrat party wins this year is if they are able to successfully convince the voters in 25 Republican districts they are not who they say they are. while keeping all of their own from flipping to another party, that they are not who they were in their primary elections. And with their primary elections going the way they have, this is going to be a tall order.

The last few years have seen a massive swing of the party to the left. In 2002, the party was decidedly left of center, with some centrists to round out the majority leftist party. As the years went on, the Democrats became more and more leftist, which after 2006 has translated into huge losses in the midterm elections.

What Sparta Report has been pointing out for years is finally coming to pass, the Democrat party is almost completely taken over by the uber-leftist factions in the Democrat party. There are no more centrist Democrats. Even the purportedly “centrist” Democrats like Joe Manchin are still leftist Democrats by comparison to their 2002 brethren.

 

Democrats Have Been Running Faster and Faster to the Left Since 2002

The following gif highlights the massive change that has transformed the Democrat party into a loud, proud, and outright socialist party:

While the Republican party has been getting more conservative as the years have gone by, the Democrats are seeing a huge change in their ideological foundations.

The Democrat primary is dominated by special interest issues demanded by the liberal donors, and impeachment of President Trump for crimes such as mean to a foreign leader and obstructing himself within the Department of Justice. The current crop of Democrats being brought into the general will be extremely likely to vote for impeachment and sack anyone in leadership who disagrees come January if they are responsible for a win that gets Democrats back the House of Representatives.

If this crop of true believers being ushered into the general from these primary elections were in office in 2008, they would have passed amnesty for the illegal alien populations within the United States, they would have raised taxes massively, they would have passed every single econazi bill they got their hands on, they wouldn’t have waited for the Supreme Court to hand down gay marriage and done it themselves, and they would have enacted single payer healthcare outright.

The danger of this new Democrat party is their utter contempt for America and they know in a zealous certainty that they have the right solutions for the country. Add in the racial component and the Democrats will fully transform the United States in a less than a generation into genocidal South Africa North.

 

If the Democrats Go Even Further Left, They Should Win Right?

The Washington Post points out that the last time the party went decidedly “to the left,” they won the midterms by snatching 30 seats away from Republicans. But as the following graph shows, that was not the case in 2014 when they were even further left than they were in 2006 and 2010. Now with their hard left takeover nearly complete, the Washington Post has decided that they have an even better chance of taking over the House this year.

The best way to determine the mood of a midterm election is to turn to the generic ballot polling question, where the pollster asks the respondents to identify who they would vote for in the upcoming elections. This is the barometer to which we can gauge the relative performance of the two parties in the upcoming elections.

So when we consult the generic ballot polling, the Democrats should be winning them even more than the Democrats in 2006 were, according to the theory that going left always translates to bigger wins for the Democrat party, right?

Well, the generic ballot polling is reflecting a newly competitive race as Republicans have closed the gap to the single digits.

Even the anti-Trump CNN was able to cook up a poll showing a fifteen to twenty point edge in the 2018 elections only a few months ago, released a poll with only a 6 point Democrat edge two weeks ago. Quinnipiac released a poll a few days ago showing a 3 point edge for Democrats. This is far short of the 15 point margin the Democrats need to have a certainty of taking over the House of Representatives. This was a number on the generic ballot that the Democrats were very close to only months ago.

For comparison at this time in 2014, Republicans were trailing the Democrats by an average of 4 points in the generic ballot polling and won the election by 6 points.

Similarly, the inverse was true in 2010, when the Republicans were ahead of the Democrats by around 5 points and won the election by 7 points.

In 2006, the Democrats last major wave election, they were ahead by over 15 and eventually won the election with half that number, 7 points.

All of these numbers have something in common, Republicans are consistently underrepresented in the polling by a large amount versus their final turnout at the actual election. Now, this was less so in 2010, but even then the Republicans were still measured several points lower than they were at the time of the election. This year with a Democrat margin of 5% over the Republicans on the generic ballot, if past history of Republican undersampling is occurring yet again, the Republicans will fight the election to a draw on the generic ballot. This translates to the Democrats winning big in their own territory and the same will happen with the Republicans in their own.

I’m not even talking about the Democrat party registrations being outpaced by Republicans nearly everywhere either. Nor am I talking about the various Democrat Senate candidates who are underwater in what should be easy reelection campaigns for them.

Change my mind: Are the Democrats are going to win the 2018 elections?

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