UPDATE – NEW YORK TIMES DECLARES VICTORY FOR DEBBIE LESKO (R) IN THE ARIZONA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 8 PRIMARY
That’s the game folks!
——Original story below ——
Arizona Congressional District 8 Background
From fivethirtyeight, some background information for the district:
Arcing through the suburbs northwest of Phoenix, including Surprise, Peoria and Litchfield Park, Arizona’s 8th District is usually a Republican stronghold. According to Daily Kos Elections, President Trump carried it 58 to 37 percent in 2016; Mitt Romney won it 62 to 37 percent in 2012. According to FiveThirtyEight’s preferred method for calculating a district’s default partisanship — we call it a district’s “partisan lean” — the 8th District is 25 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole.
That’s comparable to Pennsylvania’s 18th District and most other jurisdictions that have hosted special congressional elections since Trump took office.
Democrat Performance in Special Elections at the Federal Level
The article also describes how much the average swing has been in federal special elections since the 2016 general election. It has been an average of 17 points:
The margins in federal special elections since Trump’s inauguration have been an average of 17 points more favorable to Democrats than pure partisanship would lead us to expect. Another Democratic overperformance is likely on Tuesday — practically no one thinks Lesko is going to defeat Tipirneni by 25 points or more. But in order for Tipirneni to win outright, she’d not only need to do better than the Democrats’ average overperformance so far, but also better than their overperformance in Pennsylvania.
President Donald Trump tweeted about the race this morning:
Arizona, please get out today and vote @DebbieLesko for Congress in #AZ08. Strong on Border, Immigration and Crime. Great on the Military. Time is ticking down – get out and VOTE today. We need Debbie in Congress!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 24, 2018
Results from the New York Times here.
A near 10 thousand vote lead for Lesko so far.