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The New Iranian Revolution

Once again, all eyes across the world are focused upon Iran. In scenes reminiscent of 2009, the Iran people have once again taken to the streets to protest the current regime.

Beginning on Thursday, December 28, Iranians began to protest the declining economic conditions, corruption, and the lack of personal freedoms.

Now, both President Hassan Rouhani who promised economic improvement, and the Ayatollah Khamenei are under attack and demands for Khamenei to resign are everywhere.

In the 2009 protests, it was those under the age of 30 years old who took to the streets. At the time, this population demographic represented more than 50% of the population.  The current protests are the 40 and under demographic, which nine years later represents even more of the majority of the population.

Worse for the Iranian regime, the younger people have now been exposed to the Internet for an additional 9 years. They have been able to access news sites, social media and other informative sources so as to know what is really going on in the world. No longer can the regime control the media and the story. (Though they have shut down Twitter and other apps, the damage has already been done.)

At the present time, the protests are “organic” and leaderless. The leaders from 2009 still remain in jail, and many likely dead.

If new leaders appear, they are likely to be those who were involved in 2009. They have learned from the previous experiences and will put the past lessons to good use.

The Republican National Guard and the Basij Militia will be key to what happens in the coming days.

The Republican National Guard tends to be extremely loyal to the Mullahs and the regime. They suppressed the 2009 protests and will attempt to do the same. This is especially so since the leaders of the RNG would find themselves on the “bad side” of a noose or firing squad if the regime is overthrown.

The Basji Militia was also a major contributor in the 2009 protests, siding with the RNG. But there are reports that some Basji are siding with the protestors this time.

An interesting and threatening potential problem that lies for the regime is with the younger RNG soldiers. If they side with the protestors, this will lead to the Basji doing the same in greater numbers. And if the junior officers join the protests, the RNG will fall.

 

BUGOUT IN PROGRESS?

For the last two days, there are reports of unidentified planes taking to the air and not disclosing their flight plans. They are tracked and are leaving Iranian airspace.

This is characteristic of “bug outs” where the people who really know what is going on, take what they can and run to another country.

When a “bug out” occurs, it usually means that the regime will fall.

 

IMPLICATIONS

For the Iranian regime to fall and a “people’s revolution” to be successful, the implications are YUGE!. We can say this:

  1. Hamas and Hezbollah will finding that their funding from Iran will cease. They should be effectively “neutered” in their ability to wage war against Israel.
  2. The Norks have been benefiting from Iran technology transfers and arms information. This will hinder further weapons development, but may have untold consequences for South Korea.
  3. Yemen will no longer be receiving support from Iran in their efforts against Saudi Arabia.
  4. Israel will find themselves in a more secure situation.

 

PREDICTIONS

At this time, it is impossible to say what the final outcome will be. Whether the regime wins or the people succeed, we should know within about 48 hours. If the revolution is a success, this time next year will be a completely different world.

 
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Written by PatrickPu

Former Loan Officer and currently a Case Consultant and Expert Witness in Foreclosure and Lending Litigation cases. Avid follower of NCAA Football and Top 25 teams.

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