As the voters have discovered that the old media narrative over the Tax Cuts was a completely fabricated lie, they have warmed to Republicans in the polling, showing a Democrat generic ballot lead collapsing, according to the latest polling from Marist and NBC news/Wall Street Journal.
Democrat Generic Ballot Poll Lead Collapsing
In both of the polls, Democrat generic ballot advantages in the generic ballot for the 2018 elections fell precipitously from an 15 point high on November 14th to just six points within the last week. In addition, Republicans have taken the lead on the generic ballot with Independents, having erased their deficit with them they had all last year.
In contrast to the horrible optics of the shutdown to the American public, where the Democrats have shut down the government and forced workers to work without pay in order to demand amnesty for illegal aliens, the lead for Democrats in the generic ballot polls may drop even further.
This also perfectly sets up Republicans to be able to run attack ad after attack ad against Democrats for being soft on crime, favoring illegal aliens over American children and military personnel, and for playing games over funding the government.
The shift dashes the hopes of Democrats, who were salivating over the fact that they believed they convinced Americans that the Tax Cuts from President Trump were going to be a disaster.
Unfortunately with all the good news surrounding the bill and the countless companies announcing bonuses, pay raises, more jobs, transferring business back to the United States, and rate reductions, the narrative may have blown up in the Democrat party’s face.
Republican and Democrat Generic Ballot Fluctuations as the Election Draws Closer
As elections draws closer, the Republican party also tends to increase in support as the polling propaganda by media companies is reduced. 2016 was a great example of this as ABC went from showing a double digit victory for Hillary Clinton to a margin of error race.
Some will continue to broadcast polling insanity, Fox News showcased this in the most recent election in Alabama were they were showing a blowout for Doug Jones the day before the election where he won by 1 point.
A Democrat generic ballot lead can also be deceptive due to racial gerrymandering. The Democrat party insists that the apportionment system be preserved and protected, which has boxed them into districts that ensure their perpetual control. However, this also severely limits their expansion into the surrounding areas. As such, they need a very large margin in the pre-election polling in order to see gains of seats in the final results.
In 2006, in order to gain 31 seats and take over the lower chamber, the Democrats needed a generic ballot advantage of 10 points. In order to gain another 31 seats under the auspices of the presidential election of 2008, they had to have a 14 point generic ballot advantage.
Contrast this with the 2 point generic ballot advantage in 2010 that the Republican party enjoyed, that resulted in them picking up 63 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2014, the Republicans won an additional 16 seats with a 5 point generic ballot advantage after the redistricting of 2010 was put into action in most states.
The Democrats currently need at least 25 seats to flip in the House of Representatives to take over the chamber, if the election shows a 6 point generic ballot lead, the chamber will remain in Republican hands.
Consequences for the Senate as the Democrat Generic Ballot Collapses
As to the Senate, the map is vastly different there because of the shutdown. There are over ten Democrats up for reelection in states that President Trump won.
To illustrate just how precarious their positions are, five of them defied the Democrat party base and voted to approve of the funding bill passed by the House of Representatives and against shutting down the government.
One of them was Claire McCaskill, the perpetually unpopular Democrat senator from Missouri who has held on to her senate seat through deftly using wedge issues against Republicans, reverse psychology, knowing that the national GOP leadership would cut and run at the first sign of trouble in one of their candidates, and also through outright demagoguery and bigotry.
Claire McCaskill is only leading by a point, well under 50%, against a largely unknown challenger in Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley. Within the full results of the poll, PPP found that Senator Claire McCaskill has very high unfavorables, 44% disapprove of her performance.
This is in contrast to Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley has a postive approval with nearly 50% being unsure of him.
Even the notoriously socialist leaning Public Policy Polls organization who performed the poll quickly sidestepped the issue in their press release of the topline numbers.
This is being repeated across the board for most Senate races where endangered Democrats, who will not have a nearly bankrupt national party to prop them up like they have in the prior special election races throughout 2017.
The Democrats have had to spend millions of dollars in every race against their Republican opponents in order to win a handful of them. Unfortunately, they have 26 seats to defend in 2018 while the Republicans have a paltry 8.
Even in a wave scenario, it would require magic to keep the Democrats from losing seats in the Senate, let alone take it and wrest the House of Representatives from Republican control.