Today’s big event is about to start. In just an hour, the polls in France will close and the world will start to find out whether Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron is to be the next president of France. A victory by Macron means the status quo of economic stagnation and unchecked Muslim immigration into France will continue, and will also be an implicit vote of confidence in German domination of the EU. Polls are predicting he will win, but the polls have an abysmal track record as of late.
A Le Pen victory likely means a reversal of France’s current immigration policies and the potential for France to exit the EU entirely. A “Frexit” would almost certainly mean the end of the European Union, as the Franco-German alliance is the core of the EU. The Union cannot exist without it.
The stakes are very high, and almost as much as they were during the US November elections. Unfortunately, Marine Le Pen seems to face even tougher circumstances than Trump did. Some anecdotal evidence suggests Macron’s lead is not quite as large as people are expecting, but she still has a lot of distance to make up.
Polls close at 8 pm Paris time, 2 pm EST, so we should know something soon.
Politico will have live results: http://www.politico.eu/article/france-presidential-election-2017-second-round-live-results-winner-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen/
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UPDATE: (NWC) France’s Turnout Numbers at 5PM
They show the lowest turnout since the sixties, the first round saw a larger percentage of the electorate turnout than today at 5PM (GMT+2)
France vote: turnout calculation at 5pm: 65.3% (min. interior data) is lowest since 1969. #Presidentielle2017 #Elections2017
UPDATE II: (NWC) Betting Markets Have Flipped
Le Pen is now leading on a betting market higher than Brexit and Donald Trump did in their respective elections:
Independent candidate Emmanuel Macron is seen as the favourite to secure victory in the French Election, yet more more people have put stakes backing his opponent, found Oddschecker, which measures a number of betting odds to create an average.
Overall, there are a higher number of bets on Ms Le Pen coming out on top, than Brexit or Donald Trump – even though the odds are much lower, according to the betting experts.
Around 56 per cent of stakes placed have been for the anti-euro candidate to win.
Sam Eaton, spokesperson at Oddschecker, said: “Trump himself has been one of two major political betting shocks in the last couple of years, the other being Brexit.
“Even though the odds of another upset are a lot steeper, surprisingly a lot more people are backing another shock result in the French Election than in the US last year.”
UPDATE III: Those Betting Markets are going to lose a bunch of Money, Macron Wins
?? BREAKING: @EmmanuelMacron wins #Election with 65,5% (exit poll), 2nd lowest voter turnout in history, >10% blank (protest) votes