A Delegate Perspective
The Current Situation on State Wins:
Current Pledged Delegates Needed to Win (763 Remaining)
2. A Delegate Perspective
Current Pledged/Unpledged Delegates Needed to Win (842 Remaining)
If Cruz loses only 32 delegates to either Unpledged, Trump, or Kasich, he is out of contention from the first ballot.
Trump keeps chipping away at Cruz, and each pledged delegate he loses to Trump, he gets closer and closer to being eliminated. Despite his 12 point win, Cruz lost 6 delegates to him last night in Wisconsin. We also still have Colorado later on this week, where it will finish its’ convention. Again to keep from being eliminated, he needs to capture every single delegate. He has already taken 6 delegates of the 37 delegates available.
From my last article on this:
If Trump wins all of New York’s delegates, he effectively eliminates Cruz from the pledged delegate game. Even in the best case scenario, Cruz takes all of Wisconsin’s delegates. He would also take all of Colorado’s and all of Wyoming’s delegates. And Trump will still eliminated him in New York.
The only hope Cruz has at that point is to win every single remaining pledged delegate. He also has to hope to God that he wins every single unpledged/unbound delegate.
The problem: after the next three contests in Cruz friendly territory and Trump’s home state of New York, we head to the rest of the northeastern states. These states are heavily favored Trump territory. These will award Trump with even more delegates. And even worse, most are winner take all or a form of winner take all, which further denies Cruz delegates. In fact, after 4/26 northeastern primaries, Ted Cruz is likely to be completely eliminated and will only be in the race to deny Trump delegates as a #NeverTrump establishment supporter.
Again, after 4/26, Ted Cruz outs himself as an establishment sleeper agent. He will effectively be in favor of Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush to be parachuted into the nomination at the convention. Cruz, along with John Kasich, will be directly responsible for the destruction of the Republican Party. And the election of Hillary Clinton.
This remains true today. Now since New York is winner take all for each congressional district AND statewide if someone gets greater than 50% of the vote, Cruz and Kasich could potentially get some delegates there. As the primary is a winner takes most primary otherwise (2 delegates for the winner with 1 delegate for the runner up). Now since Trump is running nearly thirty points higher than his nearest competitor, it should be fairly easy for him to get above 50% in most districts, especially if he gets above 55%.
After New York, we move on to the other New England States, which will also eliminate Cruz mathematically from using unpledged delegates to sneak a victory at the Republican convention. If Trump goes on a six to seven state win streak, he will nearly have the nomination tied up. The Northeast will have 118 delegates up for grabs altogether along with the 95 delegates for New York a week earlier.
Trump only needs a little over 60% of the remaining delegates to win, an easily achievable goal if he overwhelmingly takes the next few states as he is slated for, plus Indiana.